Hope everyone in the U.S. had a great Thanksgiving.
This is a quick follow up on my previous post, 10 Predictions About Cloud Computing, which received quite a bit of attention in the cloudosphere. Specifically, my second point there, which stated:
Public Rules: Internal clouds will be niche. In the long-run, Internal Clouds (clouds operated in a company's own data centers, aka "private clouds") don't make sense. The economies of scale, specialization (an aspect of economies of scale, really) and outsourcing benefits of public clouds are so overwhelming that it will not make sense for any one company to operate its own data centers. Sure, there need to be in place many security and isolation measures, and feel free to call them "private clouds" -- but they will be owned and operated by a few major public providers.
A coouple of weeks ago I had an interesting conversation with Marten Mickos, CEO of Eucalyptus (and of MySQL fame), a private cloud platform provider. I explained that I believe that Internal Private Clouds (i.e., clouds operated on a company's own servers), will become a niche in the long run.
Surprisingly, Marten did not disagree, but he made the following very good point. If we look a few years ahead, let's say 2015, the IaaS market in total will be a roughly $20 billion market according to estimates by IDC and others. If private IaaS is anywhere between 10% to 20% of that, certainly within the bounds of the definition of a "niche", we're still looking at a multi-billion dollar market. Enough to sustain the success of several startups and large vendors.
Point well taken.
The other follow up on this topic is a reference to my friend Nati Shalom's post on the topic. It's a good read with good arguments.